Wednesday, September 29, 2010


Here is the first of what I hope will be one of fifty state previews with updates along the way. The first is Alabama: It includes a Governor's race, a Senate race and seven Congressional District's. There are statewide row offices that I will not comment on.

Robert Bentley (R) vs Ron Sparks (D)

Bentley won the Republican Primary runoff. It is believed he is cozy with the teacher's union and they orchestrated his runoff victory. We'll see about that. Rasmussen has consistently polled this race and the results are here:
PREDICTION: BENTLEY (R) will hold for Republicans. 60-40%

Senate: Richard Shelby* (R) vs.William Barnes (D)
Rasmussen's numbers are here:
Nothing to see here. PREDICTION: SHELBY (R) to hold.

1st CD: Jo Bonner* (R) vs David Walter (C) No polling here. Bonner will roll.
2nd CD: Martha Roby (R) vs Bobby Bright* (D) This is the only real race in this state for Congress. You can get a sense here:
Bright carried this district by less than 2,000 votes in 2008, even though McCain carried the district with 63% of the vote. So, he has demonstrated durability. That being said, I just don't see how he survives this election cycle. PREDICTION: ROBY in a PICKUP
3rd CD: Mike Rogers* (R) vs Steve SeGrest (D)  No contest. Rogers rolls
4th CD: Robert Aderholt* (R) is unopposed
5th CD: Mo Brooks (R) vs. Steve Raby (D) 
Parker Griffith, a party switcher was defeated by Mo Brooks in the Republican Primary.This simply does not look terribly competetive. PREDICTION: MO BROOKS to hold.

6th CD: Spencer Bacchus* (R) is unopposed
7th CD: Don Chamberlain (R) vs Terri Sewell (D) Arthur Davis decided to run a losing primary campaugn for Governor instead of running for re election. Terri Sewell is the beneficiary

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