Wednesday, September 29, 2010

ARIZONA ELECTION PREVIEW

Arizona, it seems is at the center of the political universe. And with good reason. Here's an overview: http://www.politics1.com/az.htm

Governor: Jan Brewer* (R) vs. Terry Goddard (D) Polling here:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/az/arizona_governor_brewer_vs_goddard-1409.html#polls
Jan Brewer had her now infamous debate disaster, but it hasn't hurt her in polling. Terry Goddard has made a valiant effort, but he's caught in a wave in a state where there ain't  much water. PREDICTION: BREWER to HOLD

Senator: John McCain* (R) vs. Rodney Glassman (D) Polling Here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/az/arizona_senate_mccain_vs_glassman-1433.html#polls
McCain dispatched JD Hayworth easily. Thank God, that blow hard was beaten. McCain has tacked to the right because he knows that's where he needs to be. PREDICTION: McCain to HOLD

1st CD: Paul Gosar (R) vs. Ann Kirkpatrick* (D) Polling Here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/az/arizona_1st_district_gosar_vs_kirkpatrick-1289.html 
There is not a whole lot to go on here, except that the Repubs are buying time and Dems  are cutting air time. This has never really been a swing district as it was represented by Rick Renzi (R) who was as corrupt as they come. That had as much to do with Kirkpatrick's win as anything. PREDICTION: GOSAR to PICKUP

2nd CD: Trent Franks* (R) vs. John Thrasher (D) No polling here. Info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000003717 
Franks thrashed Thrasher in 2008. Repeat. PREDICTION: FRANKS to HOLD

3rd CD: Ben Quayle (R) vs Jon Hulburd (D) Polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/az/arizona_3rd_district_quayle_vs_hulburd-1369.html Additional info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000000023
Ben Quayle received a host of bad publicity from the primary, but won a small plurality to move forward. That said, there is no evidence of a real race. PREDICTION: QUAYLE to HOLD

4th CD: Janet Contreras (R) vs Ed Pastor* (D) No polling here. Info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000000021
Nothing happening here. PREDICTION: PASTOR to HOLD

5th CD: David Schweikert (R) vs Harry Mitchell* (D) Polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/az/arizona_5th_district_schweikert_vs_mitchell-1285.html. Info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000025644
A rematch from four years ago, but no Obama on the ballot. But there is plenty of McCain and Brewer. Mitchell was elected in the wake of JD Hayworth's association with Jack Abramoff. No Hayworth on the ballot also,thanks to McCain. PREDICTION: SCHWEIKERT to PICKUP

6th CD: Jeff Flake* (R) vs Rebecca Schneider (D) No polling here. Info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000007588
A rematch from two years ago. Irrelevant. PREDICTION: FLAKE to HOLD

7th CD: Ruth McClung (R) vs Raul Grijalva* (D) No polling here. Info here: Not available.
Swing State Project recently reported that Grijalva wasn't running as strong as he normally does. I'm dubious.
PREDICTION: GRIJALVA to HOLD

8th CD: Jesse Kelly (R) vs. Gabrielle Giffords* (D) Polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/az/arizona_8th_district_kelly_vs_giffords-1287.html Info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000025915
Of all the seats in jeopardy, this is the one that is genuinely a swing district. It used to represented by moderate GOP Congressman Jim Kolbe, so it is not typical. That being said, I think Giffords is on the wrong side of history. PREDICTION: KELLY to PICKUP

*denotes incumbent

No comments:

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

wibiya widget