Wednesday, September 29, 2010

ARKANSAS ELECTION PREVIEW

Arkansas is perhaps one of the bell weather states. The House races are an indication of the problems Democrats face at the polls. Info here: http://www.politics1.com/ar.htm

Governor: Jim Keet (R) vs Mike Beebe* (D) Polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/ar/arkansas_governor_keet_vs_beebe-1568.html#polls.
Mike Beebe must be a helluva governor because he seems as safe as it comes in Arkansas. I thought for sure this would tighten, but it's on no one's radar. PREDICTION: BEEBE to HOLD

Senator: John Boozman (R) vs Blanche Lincoln* (D) Polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_boozman_vs_lincoln-1186.html#polls More info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000000018
Is there an incumbent that is more toast than Lincoln? PREDICTION: BOOZMAN to PICKUP

1st CD: Rick Crawford (R) vs. Chad Causey (D) Polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/ar/arkansas_1st_district_crawford_vs_causey-1261.html. More info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000000013
This race became competitive when Marion Berry retired. McCain won this district and so did Bush. PREDICTION: CRAWFORD to PICKUP

2nd CD: Tim Griffin (R) vs. Joyce Elliott (D) Polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/ar/arkansas_2nd_district_griffin_vs_elliott-1253.html More info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000000014
Vic Snyder retiring opened this seat up to competition. He had no shot at losing, well maybe not anyway. This is a Democratic district, but everyone has this flipping. PREDICTION: GRIFFIN to PICKUP

3rd CD: Steve Womack (R) vs. David Whitaker (D) No polling here. Info here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000014232
This is a no brainer. Boozman is cruising to a Senate seat and Womack will cruise to his House seat. PREDICTION: WOMACK to HOLD

4th CD: Beth Anne Rankin (R) vs. Mike Ross*(D) Polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/ar/arkansas_4th_district_rankin_vs_ross-1343.html More Info Here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000007208
Mike Ross hasn't had a serious challenger since former Congressman Jay Dickey and even then he got 60% of the vote. But McCain won this district big and turnout will be lower. PREDICTION: ROSS to HOLD

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