Saturday, October 2, 2010

California Election Preview

California seems to be defying the trends around the nation. We'll see on election day. Maybe California voters will get what's coming to them. Basic Info here: California Offices.

Governor: Meg Whitman (R) vs. Jerry Brown (D) Polling info here: Whitman vs. Brown
As we speak we have yet to determine the fallout of this bogus Gloria Allred crap. There was a debate today on univision, so we'll have to see how it plays out. In any other state there might be a backlash. California, I'm not so sure. PREDICTION: JERRY BROWN, reluctantly

Senator: Carly Fiorina (R) vs. Barbara Boxer*(D) Polling here: Fiorina vs. Boxer . More Info: Boxer History
Boxer has consistently led in polling for more than a month now, and given that this California I find it difficult, however desirable that Fiorina pulls it off. I can wish at least. PREDICTION: BOXER

1st CD: Loren Hanks (R) vs. Mike Thompson* (D) No polling. Info Here: Thompson History Thompson in a walk
2nd CD: Wally Herger*(R) vs. Jim Reed (D) No polling. Info here: Herger History. Nothing to see here Herger wins comfortably.
3rd CD: Dan Lungren* (R) vs. Ami Berra (D) Polling here: Lungren vs. Berra. District info here: District Stats
Democrats think they can pick this one off from Republicans. Lungren is a dullard, and he only got 49% in his last election and that with Obama on the ticket. I find it hard to believe he'll get out legged in GOTV on election day. PREDICTION: LUNGREN
4th CD: Tom McClintock*(R) vs. Clint Curtis (D) No polling here. District info here: District Stats
McClintock is a genuine conservative hero in Congress. He only won by less than a couple thousand votes, but this is reliably a Republican district. PREDICTION: McClintock
5th CD: Paul Smith (R) vs. Doris Matsui* (D) No polling here. District Info Here: District Stats . Nothing to see here. Matsui rolls.
6th CD: Jim Judd (R) vs. Lynn Woolsey*(D) No polling here. District Info here: District Stats Woolsey easy
7th CD: Rick Tubbs (R) vs. George Miller*(D) No polling here. District Info Here: District Stats I wish Niller could be beat, but not happening. Miller in a walk.
8th CD: John Dennis (R) vs. Nancy Pelosi*(D) No polling here. District Info here: District Stats John Dennis made a bit of a splash with a web ad and that amounts to 15 minutes in this district. Pelosi easy.
9th CD: Gerald Hashimoto (R) vs. Barbara Lee*(D) No polling here. District Info Here: District Stats. Lee easily
10th CD: Gary Clift (R) vs. John Garamendi*(D) No polling here. District Info Here: District Stats Garamendi rolls.
11th CD: David Harmer (R) vs. Jerry McNerney*(D) polling here: Harmer vs McNerney. District Info: District Stats. This is an interesting district. Obama carried in 2008, but Bush carried it in 2000 and 2004. Harmer ran in the 10th District previously. If there is a California incumbent that by the numbers can be beaten McNerney is it. But numbers don't always tell the tale. My gut tells me he holds out in a close one. PREDICTION: McNerney
12th CD: Mike Maloney (R) vs. Jackie Speier*(D) No polling here. District Stats No brainer.
13th CD: Forest Baker (R) vs. Pete Stark*(D) No polling here. District Stats Stark is maybe the biggest asshole in Congress, which is saying something. Stark wins handily.
14th CD: Dave Chapman (R) vs. Anne Eshoo*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Eshoo wins
15th CD: Scott Kirkland (R) vs. Mike Honda*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Honda easy
16th CD: Edward Gonzalez (L) vs. Zoe Lofgren*(D) No polling here. District Stats Lofgren easy
17th CD: Jeff Taylor (R) vs. Sam Farr*(D) No polling here. District Stats Farr coasts
18th CD: Mike Berryhill (R) vs. Dennis Cardoza*(D) Polling here Berryhill vs Cardoza. District Stats Bush won this district in 2004 and by all accounts this district could be competetive, but Cardoza's numbers are consistently high. Cardoza wins easily.
19th CD:  Jeff Denham (R) vs.Loraine Goodwin (D) No polling here. District Stats. This is an open Republican seat that is safe. PREDICTION: Denham
20th CD: Andy Vidak (R) vs. Jim Costa*(D) Polling here: Vidak vs Costa. District Stats here. Jim Costa wouldn't seem to be in trouble by the numbers, but a highly publicized water rights issue in the San Juaquin Valley is making this competetive. PREDICTION: COSTA
21st CD: David Nunes*(R) is unopposed
22nd CD: Kevin McCarthy*(R) is unopposed
23rd CD: Tom Watson (R) vs. Lois Capps*(D) No polling here. District Stats Capps wins easily
24th CD: Elton Gallegly*(R) vs. Tim Allison (D) No polling here. District Stats  Gallegly coasts
25th CD: Buck McKeon*(R) vs. Jackie Conaway (D) No polling here. District Stats McKeon easily
26th CD: David Dreier*(R) vs. Russ Warner (D) No polling here. District Stats. Dreier has had competetive races of late, but not this year. PREDICTION: Dreier
27th CD: Mark Reed (R) vs. Brad Sherman*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Sherman easy
28th CD: Merlin Froyd (R) vs. Howard Berman*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Berman easily
29th CD: John Colbert (R) vs. Adam Schiff*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Schiff easily
30th CD: Chuck Wilkerson (R) vs. Henry Waxman*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Waxman walks
31st CD: Stephen Smith (R) vs. Xavier Becerra*(D) No polling here. District Stats Becerra easily
32nd CD: Ed Schmerling (R) vs. Judy Chu*(D) No polling here. District Stats Chu easily
33rd CD: James Andion (R) vs. Karen Bass (D) No polling here. District Stats Open seat but Bass wins.
34th CD: Wayne Miller (R) vs. Lucille Roybal Allard*(D) No polling here. Disctrict Stats Allard easily
35th CD: K. Bruce Brown (R) vs. Maxine Waters*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Waters sadly
36th CD: Mattie Fein (R) vs. Jane Harman*(D) No polling here. District Stats Harman easily
37th CD: Star Parker (R) vs Laura Richardson* (D) No polling here. Disctrict Stats  Star Parker would make a fine Congresswoman but she's in the wrong place to run. Richardson easily.
38th CD: Robert Vaughn (R) vs. Grace Napolitano*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Napolitano easy.
39th CD: Larry Andre (R) vs. Linda Sanchez*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Sanchez easily.
40th CD: Ed Royce*(R) vs. Christina Avalos (D) No polling here. District Stats. Royce wins
41st CD: Jerry Lewis*(R) vs. Pat Meagher (D)No polling here. District Stats Lewis in a walk

42nd CD: Gary Miller*(R) vs. Michael Williamson (D) No polling here. District Stats Miller wins easy.
43rd CD: Scott Folkens (R) vs. Joe Baca*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Baca wins easily.
44th CD: Ken Calvert*(R) vs. Bill Hedrick (D) No polling here. District Stats. Calvert won by just 6,000 votes in 2008, but Obama's not on the ballot. PREDICTION: Calvert
45th CD: Mary Bono Mack*(R) vs. Steve Pougnet (D) Polling here: Bono vs. Pougnet. District Stats
Not enough to beat Mack. PREDICTION: Bono Mack
46th CD: Dana Rohrabacher*(R) vs. Ken Arnold (D) No polling. District Stats. Rohrabacher wins easily.
47th CD: Van Tran (R) vs. Loretta Sanchez*(D) Polling here: Tran vs Sanchez. District Stats. Sanchez has not had difficulty since she first defeated Bob Dornan. Her gaffe to a Spanish language station offended key voters and Van Tran is very viable. That being said my PREDICTION: Sanchez
48th CD: John Campbell*(R) vs. Beth Krom (D) No polling here. District Stats  Campbell easy.
49th CD: Darrell Issa*(R) vs. Howard Katz (D) No polling here. District Stats. Issa easily wins and geta an important Chairmanship.
50th CD: Brian Bilbray*(R) vs. Francine Busby (D) No polling here. District Stats. Bilbray has been vulnerable in the past but no one seems concerned this year. PREDICTION: Bilbray
51st CD: Nick Popaditch (R) vs. Bob Filner*(D) No polling here. District Stats. Filner easy
52nd CD: Duncan Hunter*(R) vs. Ray Lutz (D) No polling here. District Stats. Hunter easily.
53rd CD: Michael Crimmins (R) vs. Susan Davis*(D) No polling here. District Stats Davis wins.

2 comments:

Dr. Dia Basha said...

So sorry you feel that Geo miller is a walk-in in CA-District 7. I'm here to tell you it's far from that. Rick Tubbs has put together a fantastic grassroots campaign that is making a HUGE difference and we're seeing Dems & Independents rally behind him daily. We just launched our first TV commercial and it's being received well. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q17EkVXmWu4
Don't count us out... we're here to WIN this election!

Kevin said...

Well, I've posted the video ad to the blog. Good luck. I really only looked at the numbers. Believe me I want you to be right

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

wibiya widget