Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Massachussetts Election Preview

Massachussetts is a hotbed of politics right now and totally unexpectedly. Is there a Scott Brown effect? Massachussetts stats here: Massachussetts.

Governor: Charlie Baker (R) vs. Deval Patrick*(D) vs. Tim Cahill (I)Polling Here: Baker vs. Patrick vs. Cahill
It has widely been believed that Charlie Baker could win a head to head match against incumbent Deval Patrick. Now he gets it, for all intents and purposes. Tim Cahill running mate has dropped out and has endorsed Baker. Cahill insists he is not dropping out. Call this my upset special. PREDICTION: BAKER

1st CD: Bill Gunn (R) vs. John Olver*(D) No Polling Here. Olver rolls
2nd CD: Tom Wesley (R) vs. Richard Neal*(D) No Polling Here. This is interesting in that Richard Neal has run unopposed for a decade. There is some buzz around Wesley, but not enough. Neal wins.
3rd CD: Marty Lamb (R) vs. Jim McGovern*(D) No Polling Here. McGovern has only had one opponent in his last four runs. He wins again.
4th CD: Sean Bielat (R) vs. Barney Frank*(D) Polling Here: Bielat vs Frank. District Stats. One poll has Frank at 48% and Bielat at 36%. I'd love to see Frank lose and Bielat is an attractive candidate, but I'm not risking getting my heart broken. PREDICTION: FRANK
5th CD: Jon Golnik (R) vs. Niki Tsongas*(D) Polling Here: Golnik vs Tsongas. District Stats. This really isn't on anyone's radar that I'm aware of. Tsongas wins.
6th CD: Bill Hudak (R) vs. John Tierney*(D) Polling Here: Hudak vs Tierney. District Stats. Tierney has made some news when his wife pled copped a plea on tax issues.This could be an upset, but right now Tierney wins again.
7th CD: Gerry Dembrowski (R) vs. Ed Markey*(D) No Polling Here. District Stats. Markey walks.
8th CD: Mike Capuano*(D) is unopposed
9th CD: Vernon Harrison (D) vs. Stephen Lynch*(D) No Polling Here. District Stats. Lynch survived a primary challenge which likely benefits him in a general. He has been unopposed in 3 of the last four runs. He wins again.
10th CD: Jeff Perry (R) vs. Bill Keating (D) Polling Here: Perry vs. Keating. District Stats. Delahunt retired and made it competitive. PREDICTION: PERRY

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