Monday, November 1, 2010

Election Eve Prognostication.

I had intended to provided an analysis of each of the fifty states, but only got so far as New Mexico. I just did not find the time for the rest. I have avoided the daily grind that is polling data as for the last month it has been quite obviously a game of turnout.

The talk of tightening two weeks ago has been undone as it is now the case that undecided voters as they always do are shifting against the incumbent party. In short this has widened not tightened. I am going to provide a synopsis of each state and what to look for.

                                                                      ALABAMA
Richard Shelby is going to be re elected easily and Bentley will retain the Governor's mansion for Republicans as well. The real fight is the 2nd Congressional District between freshman incumbent Democrat Bobby Bright and (R) Martha Roby. Bright won this with less than 2,000 votes in 2008. Some dems are optimistic. Why? Roby ought to win this and I believe she will.


                                                                     ALASKA
Sean Parnell will earn a full four year term as Governor in his own right and world class appropriator Don Young will be re elected to Congress. The contest here is of course for the Senate. This has gotten all the hotter in the wake of a recording of CBS affiliate reporters. Polling is difficult in Alaska, but write ins are more difficult. There have been a slew of negative reporting on Miller and he's made unforced error. Lisa Murkowski's bid, I believe will fall short in large part because I believe the dems are sticking by their guy Scott McAdams, thinking he can eke out a close three way race. I think Miller will win out, perhaps after an extensive recount.

                                                                   ARIZONA  
Jan Brewer will easily be elected Governor. John McCain will coast as well to re election. There are five house races to watch here. Democrats Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell will go down. Gabrielle Giffords is fighting for her life and I believe she will go down as well. The surprise is of course 28 year old Ruth McClung taking on Raul Grijalva (D). The latter had advocated a boycott of his state of Arizona. Good idea. It'll be close, but I suspect he goes down. PPP released a poll showing Ben Quayle losing in the 3rd CD. It is conceivable given that he won a packed primary with just 22%, but I'm not biting that apple. Not this year, even with his issues.

                                                                  ARKANSAS
Mike Beebe (D) will be spared and be re elected Governor. John Boozman will defeat Blanche Lincoln for a GOP pickup. Rick Crawford and Tim Griffin will pick pick up both the 1st and 2nd CD for the GOP.

                                                                 CALIFORNIA 
Meg Whitman ran out of gas and Jerry Brown looks like the next governor. California gets what it pays for. I think Carly Fiorina still has a shot, but that may be my intense dislike for Barbara Boxer coming through. avid Harmer is poised to defeat Jerry McNerney and Him Costa is about to go down to Andy Vidak in the San Juaquin Valley. Van Tran has a real shot against Loretta Sanchez, but I'm not holding my breath. The GOP is getting buzz in CD 51 with Nick Popaditch along the border.

                                                                 COLORADO 
Ken Buck will win comfortably in the Senate race. Undecideds are moving his way. Tom Tancredo has the seeming impossible and pulled with MOE with John Hickenlooper in the Governor's race. I'm not a fan of his, but I also think he falls short, sadly. There are three Dems I believe will go down. John Salazar, Betsy Markey and Ed Perlmutter.

                                                                 CONNECTICUT  
Dan Malloy looks to have blown his shot at Governor. Tom Foley now looks to retain this for the GOP. Glenn Beck totally exposed Richard Blumenthal on his show today, but he's poised for a comfortable victory.  Two Dems are in trouble. Jim Himes and Chris Murphy. Very close. GOP wins at least one.


                                                                 DELAWARE
Well, Christine O'Donnell fought the good fight, but there were too many people in the ring. If she were to win in a surprise, they'll be pouring the cool aid at DNC HEADQUARTERS.

                                                                FLORIDA
Two million people have already voted and half of them are Republicans. RUBIO will crush Crist and end his career. Rick Scott will defeat Alex Sink in a closer contest. Four Dems gio down in the House. Allen Boyd, Ron Klein, Alan Grayson and Suzy Kozmas will lose. The Dems are excited about Joe Garcia in CD 25 and have an eye towards CD12. I think they fall short.

                                                                GEORGIA
Nathan Deal will be forced into a runoff for Georgia Governor. He is to say the least ethically challenged. Karen Handel would have been a better choice. Johnny Isaakson goes back to the Senate. Two Dem's, Jim Marshall and Sanford Bishop go down.

                                                                Hawaii
Neil Abercrombie is in a more competitive race for Gov. than expected, but should win. Inouye goes back to the Senate. I also believe Charles Djou will win election in his own right for the GOP, but very close.

                                                                IDAHO
Butch Otter is re elected Gov. Crapo goes back to the Senate. I believe (D) Walt Minnick defies the trend and is re elected.

                                                                ILLINOIS
Bill Brady will defeat Pat Quinn for Governor. GOP PICKUP. Mark Kirk has movement in his direction. He should be elected as a REPUB in Obama's old seat. GOP PICKUP. There are five races to look at in the House. Three Dems go down. HalvorsonDold will hold 10th CD for GOP, but I'm in the minority. Look out for Dems Melissa Bean and Jan Schakowsky to go down if there is a super wave. Not counting on it here.

                                                               INDIANA
Dan Coats picks up a Senate seat for GOP. GOP wins open seat in house, defeat Baron Hill. Most seem to think Joe Donnelly will survive the wave. I don't. Indiana is the first to close tomorrow and I think Donnelly loses close.

                                                              IOWA 
Terry Branstad picks up the Governor's office for GOP. Charles Grassley gets a sixth term in the Senate. No one is optimistic about GOP winning the three Dem house seats.I'll hedge my bets and agree, but I think one of three will go down. Just a gut feeling.

                                                            Kansas 
Sam Brownback picks up the Governorship for the GOP and Jerry Moran retains the Senate seat. The Dem's lose Dennis Moore's open House seat.

                                                           Kentucky 
Rand Paul will demolish Jack Conway in the Senate race. I believe the Dems split on House races. I think Ben Chandler loses a very close contest and John Yarmouth survives a stiffer challenge than expected.

                                                           Louisiana 
David Vitter is re elected to the Senate. GOP picks up open seat. Dems defeat Joseph Cao in New Orleans.

                                                           Maine 
LePage win pick up the Governor's Office for the GOP. Surprisingly, I now believe Dem Chellie Pingree will now lose to Steve Scontrese. GOP PICKUP

                                                           MARYLAND 
Maryland is behind the national trend. O'malley is re elected Governor and Mikulski will go back to the Senate. Dems think they can save Frank Kratovil. I'm not buying. GOP pickup.

                                                          MASSACHUSSETTS 
I think Duval Patrick is about to be defeated in his re election bid as Governor to Charlie Baker. Ten house races and Barney Frank running for his life from ex marine Sean Bielat. I think the GOP will win a seat here, but don't know which one. Frank and Tierney will probably survive, but we'll see.

                                                         MICHIGAN 
Rick Snyder will pickup Goveror's office for the GOP. I think the Stupak seat and Gary Peters go down for the Dems. John Dingell likely hustled to keep his job. Dems think they have a shot in CD3 against Justin Amash, who is a real rising star. I'm dubious.

                                                         MINNESOTA 
The Governor's race is close, but I think Emmer will surprise for a GOP hold. I also am willing to go out on a limb and say both Tim Walz and James Oberstar go down for the DEMS.

                                                         MISSISSIPPI 
Dems lose both Gene Taylor and Travis Childers in the House.

                                       MISSOURI
Roy Blunt will cruise against Robin Carnahan for a Senate hold for GOP. House Dems are running scared in this state.I think Ike Skelton goes down and in an upset I believe Russ Carnahan will go down as well, but East St Louis is in the district. Emmanuel Cleaver is also getting a contest.

                                                          MONTANA 
Nothing to see here 

                                      NEBRASKA
Nothing to see here either. 

                                       NEVADA
Sandoval holds the Governor's office for the GOP. Virtually everyone concedes that Sharron Angle is going to defeat Harry Reid. Good riddance. Dina Titus loses re election as well.

                                                         NEW HAMPSHIRE 
John Stephen (D) will likely be re elected Governor. Carol Shea Porter will lose to (R) Frank Guinta. Most now think Ann Kuster will hold off former GOP Congressman Charlie Bass. I'm skeptical. 

                                                         New Jersey 
Only house races here. I now think Jon Runyan will defeat John Adler. Anna Little is getting buzz against Frank Pallone. I think she falls short. Scott Sipprelle has a shot against Rush Holt as well

                                                        New Mexico  
Susana Ramirez will pick up Governor's office for GOP. Steve Pearce will get his old house seat back. I now think Jon Barela will defeat Martin Heinrich as well.

                                                       NEW YORK
The top of the ticket is a disaster for the GOP. Cuomo is Gov. Schumer and Gillibrand go back to the Senate.The House races will be affected by the top of the ticket but not as dramatically as might normally be the case. The following Dems I believe will lose: Bishop,McMahon,Hall, Scott Murphy,Owens,Arcuri,Maffei. Look out for: McCarthy,Hinchey and Israel in a super wave.


                                                      North Carolina
Richard Burr will become the first incumbent to be re elected in this seat in over forty years.Renee Ellmers will do the unexpected and defeat Bob Etheridge.Kissell will also lose. Three others in varying degrees of jeopardy are Shuler.McIntyre and Price.

                                                    North Dakota
John Hoeven picks up a seat for the GOP in the Senate. Earl Pomeroy will be crushed by Rich Berg in the AL CD for a GOP pickup.

                                                    OHIO 
Let the bloodbath begin. John Kasich will defeat Gov. Ted Strickland more comfortably than recent polls show. Rob Portman is about to win by twenty points in the Senate race. He is poised to be someone's running mate in 2012. The following Dems go down in the house: Boccierri,Space,Wilson,Driehaus and Kilroy. Look out for in a wave: Sutton and Kaptur. Kucinich will win closer than expected election.

                                                    OKLAHOMA 
Mary Fallon picks up the Governorship for the GOP. Tom Coburn cruises back to the Senate. Dan Boren, the only Dem in the House wins also.

                                                     OREGON   
Close Governor's race. I'll take Dudley to defeat Kitzhaber for a GOP PICKUP. Ron Wyden crushes GOP opponent in Senate bid.  Theoretically, the GOP could pick up three House seats, but I'll settle for Scott Bruun defeating Kurt Schrader. But David Wu and Peter Defazio are at risk. 

                                                     PENNSYLVANIA 
There's been a lot of chatter about Joe Sestak making a run at Pat Toomey in the Senate race. He'll jump out big early as Philly returns first. The turnout must be super duper high in Philly and for that Sestak will need to deliver a check with six zeros to Democratic City Commitee. Won't happen. Late night call, but Toomey wins for a GOP PICKUP. Pat Meehan will pickup Setak's seat in DELCO. Kanjorski goes down. Dahlkemper goes down. Carney goes down. Altmire,Holden and Critz hold on for the Dems. Patrick Murphy has ensured a lengthy legal case involving absentee ballots in what is a clear case of voter fraud by his campaign. He'll lose anyway. BTW, Corbett rolls onto a GOP PICKUP for GOV.

                                                     RHODE ISLAND 
Lincoln Chafee will win the Gov. race as an independent and John Loughlin (R) will win Patrick Kennedy's open seat. 

                                                     South Carolina 
Nikki Haley will weather the most unendurable campaign tactics to become Governor. Jim Demint, of course will defeat Alvin Greene. Mick Mulvaney is assured to defeat veteran John Spratt.

                                                     South Dakota 
The GOP will keep the Gov. office. Kristi Noem defeats Sandlin for a GOP pickup.

                                                      TENNESSEE 
Bill Haslam picks up the Gov. office for the GOP. The GOP will pick up both open seats and defeat Lincoln Davis.

                                                       TEXAS
Rick Perry will cruise to re election as Governor. Chet Edwards is toast. I'm also forecasting defeat for Ciro Rodriguez,Henry Cuellar and Solomon Ortiz. 

                                                        UTAH 
Gary Herbert is elected in his own right as Governor. Mike Lee moves onto the Senate. Jim Mattheson could go down but I'm not biting that apple. 

                                                       VERMONT 
I believe GOPer Brian Dubie holds the Governor's office in a very close contest. Pat Leahy rolls back to the Senate. 

                                                       WASHINGTON 
The Senate contest is as tight as it gets, but I'm thinking Dino Rossi pulls this out. Gop picks up 3rd CD which is open. Lots of buzz in Washington for GOP. Incumbents to watch: Larsen,Smith,Dicks.

                                                       WEST VIRGINIA
Most seem to think Joe Manchin has regained his footing and will defeat John Raese. I agree. The House races are a hold for Dems I believe.

                                                       WISCONSIN
Scott Walker picks up the Governor's office for the GOP. Russ Feingold gets crushed by Ron Johnson for A GOP Senate pickup. Kagen loses to Reid Ribble. Sean Duffy picks up David Obey's open seat for the GOP. Ron Kind may be in trouble also.


                                                       WYOMING
Nothing to see here.
    

1 comment:

ccdemuth said...

Today we can begin to restore the fiscal prudence that has been lacking during the past two years of an unchecked and unbalanced congress. Incumbent congressmen such as Jim Himes are responsible for profligate spending and bureaucratic overreach that fetters our economy, leaving us with low growth and high unemployment. We can tell Washington, D.C. that we have had enough by electing reformers such as challenger Dan Debicella.

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