Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Obama Approval Deeply Underwater in Florida?

From: National Review Online

I’m not terribly familiar with Sunshine State News poll, but the numbers they find in Florida seem plausible:

A slipping economy has Floridians moving away from President Barack Obama and warming up to Republican Mitt Romney, a Sunshine State News Poll shows.The survey of 1,000 likely voters shows that 54 percent disapprove of the job Obama is doing while just 38 percent approve. That result tracks with Florida voters’ sour view of the economy, with 56 percent saying it has worsened in the past year. ”Clearly, the bleak economic landscape is not good news for Obama. This is quite sobering when you consider that the recession technically ended in summer of 2009, which really shows that people don’t believe we are out of the woods by any stretch,” said Jim Lee, president of Harrisburg, Pa.-based Voter Survey Service, which conducted the poll for Sunshine State News.

“Romney is clearly running as the ‘most qualified’ candidate to get the economy back on track, while candidates like Michele Bachmann and others are talking more about issues that play to the tea party base — spending, deficits, not raising the debt limit, etc.”Romney wins Republicans 74-14, while Democrats are voting for Obama 71-20, but independents are still up for grabs, with Romney leading 42-38,” Lee reported.

Obama’s nationwide job approval is 47 percent, but he continues to underperform in key battleground states like Pennsylvania (41 percent in a VSS poll taken in June), Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and others.In Florida, the president’s ratings were best among respondents who believe the economy has improved (54-42 approval). But that small cohort amounted to barely 13 percent of the persons polled.

For those wondering about the methodology:

This statewide poll was conducted July 5-7 with 1,000 registered likely voters for Sunshine State News. Only voters with prior vote history in general elections 2006 and/or 2008 were contacted. Interviews are randomly selected and conducted from a statewide voter file using our IVR (or automated) polling software which uses a pre-recorded voice to ask the questions, with respondents then instructed to score their answers by using their telephone key pads. Interviews are closely monitored to ensure a representative sample of Florida’s electorate is achieved based on geography, party affiliation, gender, age and other demographics; results are sometimes statistically weighted. The margin of error for a sample size of 1,000 interviews is +/-3.10 percent at the 95 percent confidence level, but higher for subgroups of respondents.

UPDATE: Last cycle, at least, Sunshine State News performed pretty well in its Florida polls:

In the Senate race, SSN’s late October poll had Marco Rubio ahead, 47 percent to 27 percent, with Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) at just 23 percent.

On Election Day, Rubio won the senatorial election with 48.9 percent of the vote to Crist’s 29.7 percent and Meek’s 20.1 percent.

In the governor’s race, they found Rick Scott 49 percent and Alex Sink at 45 percent. On Election Day, Scott won 48.8 percent and Sink won 47.7 percent.

And they also polled Allen West’s congressional district, finding West leading Ron Klein 47-44 in a survey of likely voters conducted Oct. 17-19. West won, 54 percent to 47 percen

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