Tuesday, October 11, 2011

In Iowa, Cain 30, Mitt 22

From: Don Surber

As the political spotlight focuses on a debate in New Hampshire, polls are popping out left and right that show Cain is doing well. The latest is the Public Policy Polling poll of Iowa. Herman Cain 30%, Mitt Romney 22%, everyone else is in single digits. So he is where Rick Perry was a month ago. Mitt Romney is where he was a month ago. Romney’s numbers are constant. Everyone else is on a roller coaster.

As for second choices, the race is Newt Gingrich 17%, Cain 16%, Rick Perry 12%, Romney 11%, Michele Bachmann 11%.

That is important because under the caucus rules, second choices matter. What this poll found was 3 months before the Iowa caucuses, Herman Cain is the first or second choice of 46% of potential caucus voters.

From PPP: “Despite that issue you have to think if Mitt Romney had been told six months ago that in October he would be 12 points clear of everyone other than Herman Cain in Iowa he would have taken it in a second. At this point Romney has to go all out to win Iowa- if he can win there and in New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada where he’s consistently done pretty well in the polls the race is over. He doesn’t even have to worry that much about doing well in South Carolina. There may be some issues for Romney in Iowa with the base not liking him but the reality is they haven’t persistently shown that they like anyone else either- the opening is there for him to take it.”

Despite what you think of Mitt Romney…

I love it.

He is the castor oil of a Republican electorate that is looking for something sweeter.

Cain has the best favorables/unfavorables of anyone actually running. Iowa Republicans have him at 63%/17%.

Runner-up is Rick Santorum at 46%/17%.

Then comes Newt Gingrich 56%/32%.

Then comes Romney at 51%/36%.

There is a lot of Cain loving, but Mitt hangs in there.

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