Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

From: Rasmussen Reports™

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
The uptick for Romney comes as investor confidence has fallen six points in the wake of last week’s disappointing jobs report.  Looking ahead five years, just 44% of Americans believe the nation’s economy will be stronger than it is today.  That’s the lowest level of long-term optimism ever measured.

Still, it’s important to note that the presidential race has remained very close in recent weeks. Romney has had the advantage on six of the last 12 days, and Obama has held the edge six times. It remains to be seen whether today’s results represent a lasting change or are merely statistical noise. Romney’s support has remained within three points of 46% every day for more than two months. Obama’s numbers have stayed within two points of 45% every day for nearly two months. See tracking history.

Republicans have a three-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Americans are evenly divided as to whether most Muslims worldwide view the United States as an enemy.
Just 39% of voters believe they will receive all promised Social Security benefits.  Eighty-two percent (82%) think the best way to provide more security for retirees is by making sure the Social Security trust fund is protected from Congress and adequately funded.

(President Obama’s Job Approval Ratings Below)
Romney vs. Obama - May 8, 2012
A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance.

Fifty-two percent (52%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters believe that U.S. troops should be committed overseas only when vital U.S. national security interests are at stake.
Forty-one percent (41%) of voters believe the Supreme Court is too hostile towards religion, while 15% believe it is too friendly.

Just eight percent (8%) believe that Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Sixty-four percent (64%) rate the legislators’ performance as poor.

Most voters support the president’s plan to withdraw U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan by 2014,  but there are concerns about plans to leave some soldiers in that country for training and other purposes.

To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports also compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
(Daily Approval Index Updates Below)
Obama Total Approval - May 8, 2012
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16 (see trends).

During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.

If you’d like Scott Rasmussen to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.  The Wall Street Journal has called him “America’s leading insurgent pollster,” and The Washington Post says Scott is a “driving force in American politics.”
(More Below)
Obama Approval Index - May 8, 2012
Rasmussen Reports' is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. We regularly release our results at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter,  a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service  and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate. A nationally syndicated TV show--What America Thinks --is scheduled for launch in September 2012.

Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.

Like all organizations that conduct public opinion polls, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama's numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. 

Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Republicans, 33.0% Democrats, and 31.2% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.

Partisan affiliation is typically a key indicator in Presidential election years. Over the past 20 years, exit polls have shown the party identification numbers ranging from even to a 7 point Democratic advantage. The Democrats’ best year was 2008 while 2004 showed the best numbers for the GOP.
A review of last week's key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

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